This article examines negotiations over transboundary water resources in Central Asia through the lens of game theory and strategic interaction among states. The study focuses on the interests of upstream and downstream countries within the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins, the interdependence of their policy choices, and the role of water–energy exchange mechanisms in shaping regional cooperation. By applying both non-cooperative and cooperative game-theoretical models, the paper explains the emergence of the “prisoner’s dilemma,” collective action problems, and the persistence of low-efficiency Nash equilibria in regional water politics. Particular attention is given to repeated games and compensation mechanisms as tools for achieving Pareto-improving outcomes. The article argues that the institutionalization of water–energy exchange, combined with transparent monitoring systems and fair compensation arrangements, can significantly contribute to the development of stable and long-term cooperation in transboundary water management in Central Asia.

Central Asia, transboundary water resources, water diplomacy, game theory, Nash equilibrium, prisoner’s dilemma, water-energy exchange, cooperation strategies.

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