The article analyses the impact of demographic development on employment in the Fergana Valley in 1991–2025 from a historical-demographic perspective. Drawing on statistical and archival sources, it examines the twofold growth of the valley’s population, the high demographic pressure under limited land and water resources, the dynamics of labour resources, and urbanisation processes. The central finding is the identification and substantiation of a time lag of roughly fifteen to twenty years between demographic processes (fertility waves) and the growth of labour resources, which demonstrates the need to plan employment policy on a long-term demographic horizon.

demographic development, employment, labour resources, demographic pressure, time lag, fertility, urbanisation, Fergana Valley, labour market, demographic dividend.

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